tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294159349473540264.post8849673029289976509..comments2020-06-23T04:36:29.595-07:00Comments on Epiphany Now: Collapse FatigueLuciddreamshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02128676983998762432noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294159349473540264.post-33614441626191686112013-02-01T11:37:19.923-08:002013-02-01T11:37:19.923-08:00Fox lové da lill' peepFox lové da lill' peephttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03037704048671379868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294159349473540264.post-52742985481695676512013-01-17T17:14:57.776-08:002013-01-17T17:14:57.776-08:00John, I think you got your response mixed up with ...John, I think you got your response mixed up with WHD's blog. If you want to call me by my name, it's Aaron :0)<br /><br />The collapse has been happening. We agree on that. It's anybodies guess. I'm sayin' 100 years before Mad Max, on the periphery. I'm sayin' 1984 is real now, just not complete. Brave New World was indeed the goal. Huxely was not down with PO I'm sure. Didn't know the energy would be gone. There is enough energy to make 1984 real for a hundred years once it's completely 1984 imo. Luciddreamshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02128676983998762432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294159349473540264.post-77582474561551422862013-01-17T16:47:02.046-08:002013-01-17T16:47:02.046-08:00You pose an excellent question, William, how fast ...You pose an excellent question, William, how fast is fast? I consider the collapse of the Soviet Union to be a fast collapse. We might not be able to put an hour, a day, or a month on when it happens, but I think by the start of the 22nd century people will say "collapse occured around year" X. I am willing to be betting my life on it. By that I mean I'm prepared if it doesn't happen for people to say, "he wasted his entire life on that". What I am not willing to bet on is what specific year that will be, or that I will even live long enough to see it. But I don't think the elites are smart enough to draw this out over two centuries. And from the way they are acting I think they know it too.John D. Wheelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16203607452410210779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294159349473540264.post-28378427168585631622013-01-15T10:13:38.183-08:002013-01-15T10:13:38.183-08:00If much of what we know as Industrial Civ comes do...If much of what we know as Industrial Civ comes down, by say, 2035, will that be a fast collapse? I'd be more inclined to the idea of a 300 year collapse, if the culture weren't so high flying and the lies about imminent cornucopia weren't so thick. BTW - I've never seen a graph of the breakdown of a compost pile, under normalized conditions. But I submit, it would be more like a fast collapse scenario than a bell curve. <br /><br />That said, ultimately, the speed of collapse will likely depend on how well it is managed, the resulting chaos contained. Hence, the MSM, and the expanding surveillance/police state. It is entirely possible that they could play it out slowly for the next ten generations, until we are living another hundred generations of Darkness. <br /><br /><br /><br /> William Hunter Duncanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03659156353754825272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294159349473540264.post-39823666420939312522013-01-14T23:45:40.257-08:002013-01-14T23:45:40.257-08:00I think the compost analogy is a bit limited in th...I think the compost analogy is a bit limited in that compost produces something useful at the end of its cycle. All our civilization is producing is millions of square miles of concrete, acid rain and nuclear waste. Still, if a concrete-and-nuclear-waste-eating microbe evolves ...<br /><br />I'm also of the 'slow collapse' school. However, and it's a big however, I think that on an individual level there are many snares that can entrap us as entropy increases. <br /><br />After all, we are looking at a system as a whole (the world) and there are many many places booming economically right now. Even here in Denmark life is exactly the same as it was 5 years ago - in fact it is probably materially better.<br /><br />Great post, btw.Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294159349473540264.post-46428304686327851292013-01-14T18:21:25.727-08:002013-01-14T18:21:25.727-08:00Excellent!! You just gave me a mini-epiphany! Th...Excellent!! You just gave me a mini-epiphany! The slow collapse scenario does not need to be contradicted. A slow collapse would be natural for the depletion of a critical resource, just like a car doesn't suddenly run out of gas. It is precisely what you don't see that is evidence for a fast collapse.<br /><br />One of the first principles of engineering is that entropy can not accumulate. As an engine runs through its cycle exactly 100% of the entropy generated must leave. The alternative is the what auto enthusiasts call redlining, where the engine blows up. The fact that you aren't seeing complete recoveries means that entropy is accumulating in the system, and to my knowledge systems that accumulate entropy always fail abruptly eventually, whether they are mechanical, biological, social, or financial.<br /><br />Don't get me wrong, I think the stair-step model isn't bad. I don't think we will go to 0 all at once, but I think the steps will be very significant in size, more like the collapse of the Soviet Union than 2008.John D. Wheelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16203607452410210779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294159349473540264.post-30985326787854068852013-01-14T16:39:52.534-08:002013-01-14T16:39:52.534-08:00thanks John, I thought I should have taken more ti...thanks John, I thought I should have taken more time with the compost analogy cause I figured there were more angles I could have tied in. You're right about the methane digester. I think?<br /><br />So you're a proponent of fast collapse? Just got a while to go. I disagree, obviously, but I still have an open mind on the subject. I really do think JMG is correct on this one. I haven't seen anything to contradict a slow collapse. I mean it's stair step no doubt. They're going to be events we can point to and say "see...collapse," like 2008, the Macundo blow out, and Hurricane Sandy, but all in all BAU is going to continue getting worse by the day. Luciddreamshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02128676983998762432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7294159349473540264.post-48409952489444199312013-01-14T16:24:41.938-08:002013-01-14T16:24:41.938-08:00I think the compost analogy is excellent in descri...I think the compost analogy is excellent in describing the pro-collapse point-of-view. The problem is that the other side does not see the future garden. They are actively trying to delay decomposition as long as possible. In that sense, to continue the analogy, what we have is not so much an anaerobic pile as a methane digester. The people at the top are trying to extract as much as they can from the process of decomposition.<br /><br />The fact that they are prolonging the process as long as possible also means that a sudden collapse is basically inevitable. It does not, however, have to come anytime soon. In fact, I would be willing to bet that it won't occur until basically everyone agrees that it will never occur. The slow part of the collapse will grind all the preppers down.John D. Wheelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16203607452410210779noreply@blogger.com